HP wrote:
Would love to see at least one pure speed type enter the Preakness so AP and/or Dortmund has to at least THINK about pushing early.
In my view, they do push early, nobody can keep up.
Maybe it is my rose colored glasses. But in three of the recent four years the SoCal horses controlled the pace. Others could not or did not keep up.
In 2012 lots of pre race conjecture about how Bodemeister would wilt when confronted with competition on the front end. Loose on the lead or others unable not go with?
In 2014 CC was considered no faster than many other contenders coming in to the race. Where were they during the race. CC's race actually looked a bit similar to AP's tracking the lead on the outside and out finishing the others.
In 2015 the casual observer looks at the raw times and thinks the SoCal horses had it all their own way on the lead. They were running in formation to block others from attending the pace? The expected crowd on the 2nd turn did not develop, Why is that? Either the eastern jockeys or horses are relatively slow this time of year.
Bald Assed Opinion - Eastern horses do not peak until mid summer. SoCal not so advantaged @ SAR. East Coasters traveling to DMR not so disadvantaged. The key is climate and that is physical. I've read that scientists are currently exploring the GP to CD phenomena it is so noticeable.
So IMO the only possibility of seeing the three amigos get outrun early is to find a quick sprinter. To think they were relaxed and coasting on the lead is ludicrous.