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Thoro-Graph
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The best horses in this race didn't win because, and this has happened in the past for sure, it's really, really difficult to get through a 20 horse field on a track that's not designed for it. And let's acknowledge that the jockey on the winner rode a brilliant race. His main goal was to stay out of trouble and make one clean run.
There's also no doubt that the tr
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alm
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The early p4 is more interesting.
2: 2, 4, 7, 8
3: 1, 3, 8
4: 1, 8, 9, 10
5: 5, 10, 11
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alm
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I think that most of the responses to my post about the effect of ground loss on a horse’s time in a race were snarky and abusive. That’s ok because it’s kind of what this board is about.
But what if my claims were well founded? What if I really have been able to establish a useful metric for this otherwise elusive fact about racing? What if you just suspended your disbelief to ask ‘what if
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alm
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I didn't expect anyone to leap up and congratulate me for my post and I don't intend to explain or defend it, but really Jerry: somebody at TG implied in your Preakness analysis that Social Inclusion was the fastest horse in the race. That was not true then and it's not true now.
I had thought that Chrome had tailed off in the Preakness, visually speaking, but he did not. His S
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alm
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I’ve spent the last two years developing a metric to measure the effort-impact of ground loss on horses in races. I’ve determined that the impact of ground loss in a turn is significantly greater than ground loss in a straightaway by a factor of about 2-1; not precisely, but close.
Useful discoveries that I made include:
1. Mature horses run about the same number for all their races on the s
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alm
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Adios Amigos....you missed the horse and I'm the problem. Right.
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alm
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OK, final comment.
As I saw it those La Derby horses did have a better (homemade by Al) number than Orb and in each case they were regression candidates because the La Derby represented very large new tops for them. Orb on the other hand had confirmed his own large new top two back with a pair-up in the Florida Derby.
Orb was far more likely to move forward in Kentucky and that's the
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alm
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Someday we'll have a conversation about this. Golden Soul was not a surprise to me. Let's let it go for now because I can see this is going nowhere.
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alm
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Jerry, I know I promised you that I wouldn't bring up my 'homemade' figures again and I am not redboarding in replying to you here, but Golden Soul did not jump up according to my figures. He actually went into the race with about a 1% better last race number than Orb. So the way I saw it was that either Orb jumped up over him (most likely) or he had a slight setback himself.
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alm
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My mind's eye isn't helping me here, but didn't most of the dirt races later in the day go to horses circling the field wider than usual?
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alm
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Yes. He was the slowest of the four top finishers at Fair Grounds. But it is his race at Hawthorne that is the setup for the Preakness. I don't know what his numbers were there, but they had to be a new top for the horse. The question will be whether he can pair up or move ahead from the new level or if he will regress. If he pairs or improves and Orb regresses, he can win.
Meanwhile
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alm
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This is a good horse...he will run well when he's had the time that he needs. Even then, however, he may not be the fastest among these. The way the Louisiana horses performed it is far more likely that one of them will win the Preakness if Orb stumbles. And if he doesn't bounce, the Claiborne horse may turn out to be the best of them. As Hermes used to say in the Morning Telegraph,
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alm
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toppled Wrote:
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> Departing is nowhere near Orb's league.
Really? Golden Soul is somewhere NEAR Orb's league and Departing beat him in the Louisiana Derby.
For what it is worth, Orb aside, the La Derby has to be revisited as a key race in this year's preps. No?
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alm
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Look this is the tightest Derby I've seen in a long, long time. The hardest part of it will be figuring who will regress the most and who will be around at the finish when that happens to them. Horses that seem to me to be the most likely to regress (in order) are Goldencents, Will Take Charge, IMLD, Mylute, Revolutionary and Golden Soul.
The two who have had the fastest previous races
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alm
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They are hardly homemade and the mile race was a lot faster, sorry. Basically, one might conclude he is slower around two turns. Or that he has been trained slowly (his 4f work?) because that's the best Plesa can do with him at this point. It really doesn't matter: if you're right I have him in a Future Book bet and will get there anyway. If I'm right, he's not on any
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alm
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IMHO this horse's best race was the one turn Gulfstream Park Derby; he took the Holy Bull around two turns in much slower time, beating a distance challenged champion. Basically won that race off a bounce and then confirmed that bounce in the FL Derby. He has trained like a mule. Is he ready to run a much bigger number than his last two races, which he will need in order to beat a solid g
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alm
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With all due respect, and I do mean RESPECT, the people who make BRIS speed numbers are also professional people who make a living at this. And the real art in all this is one's interpretation of the numbers, from wherever they evolve or are produced. For my part and I say this in all humility, it is my interpretation of and adjustment to the BRIS figures that helps me arrive at betting de
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alm
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Why not start on the slow TG figures in California? Was last year an anomaly in your opinion?
The big dilemma with Goldencents, from my point of view, is trying to decide whether or not he will bounce off his big last number. Most likely he will bounce, but he's a contender if he doesn't.
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alm
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Tavasco Wrote:
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> Rarely do I see a Baffert horse taken back. I see
> Govenor Charlie as a key pace factor. Remember
> last year when lightly raced Bodemeister was
> thought to be compromised by the presence of
> Trinniberg and he ran that one off his feet.
>
> I expect the same strategy. How else can he win.
&g
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alm
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Really interesting. If he haas to run clean in the Derby it just becomes a matter of deciding where to put his runners on the vertical tickets. I never thought that he had the winner anyway.
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alm
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You're in the ring at Calder and a shipper from Aqueduct walks in veins bulging with the handler hanging on for dear life. He was recently claimed from a race in which he was buried up there and gets the @#$%& bet out of him today. He beats you by four and a couple of weeks later he returns in the same company and runs off the board. He can barely walk.
That's how you tell. When
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alm
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From a former literature major I can add: he was supercilious too.
From a horse owner (me again) I can tell you that there is nothing more maddening than watching your non-drugged runner come second to a hopped up horse racing out of a dirty stable --- further knowing that the 'testers' are in over their heads vis-a-vis these guys.
Hang out in the walking ring. It happens every d
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alm
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If Calvin does his thing and TAP sort of encouraged this thinking, this horse is going to navigate about like Captain Ahab. His best bet would be to circle the field late, but Calvin would prefer to pull his molars too rather than do that. In any case Mylute, who has at least the same ability, earned his better La Derby number (running wider in that race) and is the much more logical value hors
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alm
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There are probably several ways to read his layoff, but if I have to bet my money I will bet that this character HAD to be laid off. Chances are that he came out of his last much the worse for wear and if the layoff helps him it will only position him to run better somewhere down the road. The Derby was not the logical next race after his last race, which was not fast enough to beat half this f
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alm
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Guys, check out Covello's comment on the same issue elsewhere on the site. Pay particular attention if the horse gets an inside post. He's probably doomed from there.
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alm
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Don't overlook what passes for 'testing' in Florida. It's so ridiculous that a certain NY based trainer cleaned up in the past couple of years with horses that couldn't run there, in so much pain, but came to Calder and ran new tops first out. Killed the local horses.
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alm
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Calvin - 11 years ago
IMHO, Calvin is exactly the wrong rider to put on Revolutionary. Now they even have him working the horse against the rail in order for him to 'get used to it.' Oh boy. If there was ever a Derby horse that needed to run off the rail, this is the one. He is likely to get buried in the Derby with this rider.
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alm
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Re: Orb - 11 years ago
Agree....you can use Payson insight in many races. Superior works there often translate into form on the track. Orb has not run the fastest race of the preps, but his improvement during the series is clear, which cannot be said for others. The fastest prep was Goldencents in the SA Derby....freakishly fast....I think they have the cameras on the wrong guy at Churchill....this horse will bounce
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alm
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What can I say? Beyer's been making numbers for years and hasn't had the Derby right in a century or so. TG thoroughly missed the Derby the last few years. This approach isn't as easy as it seems, because you need to make hard judgments about ground loss. For what it is worth, the LA Derby outcome had about everything to do with ground loss. Mylute and Revolutionary were about
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alm
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